Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: This session discussion is about experience-rating and credibility in group health insurance. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 18, No. 1B.

Description: This is a August 1, 1990 memorandum sent to selected members of the Society of Actuaries announcing the creation of an Education and Research Section. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 1991 Vol. 1.

Description: In session 14 MM of the Washington Annual Meeting the instructor summarizes the research topics presented at the actuarial research conference held at the University of Calgary during August 1997. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 23, No. 3.

Description: The study is based on a sample of actuarial reports attached to the form 550C3, Schedule B, which were sent to the Department of Labor during the period June 1976 to May 1977.

Description: This introduction is followed by an overview of RA, which includes such things as the role of RA in ERM, the conceptualization of RA, and the role of FL as it relates to RA. We turn then to an overview of the FL methodology used in this study. The next three chapters are devoted to FL methodology as it relates to RA issues, and includes a discussion of FL modification of the risk matrix, FL modification of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the role of fuzzy optimization as it relates to RA. We turn then to examples of RAA-FL in the areas of operational risk, hazard risk, financial risk and strategic risk. This is followed by closing comments and observations. The study concludes with an annotated bibliography.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Genetic algorithms [GAs] and neural networks [NNs] are currently being used in actuarial and financial modeling. Nonetheless, while there is a general awareness of the nature of these techniques, there is often only vague familiarity with the details of how they are implemented. This paper is intended to help alleviate this situation. Its purpose is to present an overview of GAs and NNs, which includes an explanation of what they are, how they work, and an example of how they are implemented.

Description: This paper investigates a fundamental approach to the development of the expected cost of vesting in pension plans. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1972, Vol. 24, Pt. 1, No. 70.

Description: This is a letter from Jan M. Hoem to Arnold F. Shapiro about Exposed-to-risk considerations based on the Balducci assumption and other assumptions in the analysis of mortality.